Methodology
How the admissions yield calculator works: data sources, simulation model and assumptions.
Data sources
All rates and volumes are derived from UCAS End of Cycle data (2016 to 2025) covering 250 UK higher education providers with 100 or more applicants. January 2026 deadline data is used for the in-cycle outlook.
Monte Carlo simulation
The calculator runs 5,000 independent simulations. Each simulation applies binomial sampling at every pipeline stage with normally-distributed noise on conversion rates, calibrated to each provider's historical volatility.
Confidence intervals
P10, P50 and P90 are extracted from the sorted distribution of 5,000 simulation outcomes using linear interpolation. P50 represents the median expected outcome.